Sunday, 31 March 2013

Trade Plan April Series :

NIFTY WEEKLY   :



Looks bullish ? Yes I take it as well ,we are set for a pullback. But what about free falling MACD  ??
If Macd is considered along with the channel and hammer , Its going to be lots of choppiness in the week that will give beautiful trading opportunities .

Prices will tend to rush high , but it will take quite few weeks before macd clocks that bullish curve to upside.
So , if we rally couple of days , then prices will drag for next two. These are trading delights.

Honestly , Option Writers will have a party.
But wait ,  what if channel and hammer both are negated ? If we end up next week in red breaking the yellow channel in style ? Then don't be shy, take truck loads 5400/5300 puts to double triple by april end expiry. But I really don't expect the carnage to be so quick.Someone has said , if nothing is impossible , introduce the believer to Stock Markets. Impossible things happen here.

From Weekly : All dips should be bought for a target 5800 and as 5800 clocks in the ticker positions needs to be aggressively reversed to short side for target breakage of yellow channel with SL 5840.

Note : Catching of small rally 5682 to 5800 with free falling macd , is not my cup of "tea".
I am indecisive from weekly charts , lets come to daily charts , what they say.
Its a clear hint all Nifty trades has to be limited to intraday as choppiness will blow off option premiums in two days up two days down kind of thing. Hence , let's give weight age  to daily charts.

NIFTY DAILY :




Ooo la la . They give a bullish picture as well . A rally looks quick on cards if we open slight green on monday. But alas from weekly target of 5800 , it has even narrowed to 5770 as 13/22 daily ema reside there.

There are high chances prices would go and kiss them and reverse fiercely.
Daily charts says : Buy above 5690 for target 5770 with SL near 5680.

Now wait , will you try to catch this small 80 points rally ? You may be a genius to do so. But alas , this is again not my cup of tea.
I don't like tea without ginger and elaichi .

Nifty Direction looks positive after weekly and daily charts but the upside looks capped.

A perfect trade would be wait enough to SHORT.
But who wants to miss this complete greenery ?

The trick is to start looking into Most Beaten Down Stocks in recent down trip. With Nifty sluggishly pulling up , they are going to be leading the green.

Where are those TATASTEEL , HDIL , MARUTI and most important SBI ?

I have my bouquet of stocks ready for trading which is obvious I am not sharing all with you , but lets throw some light on SBI.

SBI  WEEKLY: 




Weekly MACD is poor , but channel and candlestick  looks very similar to Nifty weekly charts so lets get indecisive from weekly charts and switch to daily charts.

Note : With this contradictions , with everything seems one way and MACD looks like screamingly in opposite direction ( you may be innocent enough to think it has done too much , now it should cool off) , all we need to do is trade with very small time horizon. Mostly intraday trades. Else they result in wide choppiness , nullifying your options in couple of days eating all the premium.

SBI DAILY :




Aaah , a clean Bullish MACD diversion.
A doji with low volumes followed by green candle next day with relative higher volumes.
Everything says go long with first target 13/22 ema in daily charts..
This can be a culprit to give Nifty its desired bounce.


So , now you think it would be wiser to trade SBI for a bounce than Nifty ?
SBI options would offer much higher percent returns when compared to Nifty Options.

But alas again , its evening here and how can I don't talk about my cup of tea .
Trading SBI in long side is NOT in my stocks bouquet.



SS






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