Trade Plan April Series :

NIFTY WEEKLY   :

Looks bullish ? Yes I take it as well ,we are set for a pullback. But what about free falling MACD  ??
If Macd is considered along with the channel and hammer , Its going to be lots of choppiness in the week that will give beautiful trading opportunities .

Prices will tend to rush high , but it will take quite few weeks before macd clocks that bullish curve to upside.
So , if we rally couple of days , then prices will drag for next two. These are trading delights.

Honestly , Option Writers will have a party.
But wait ,  what if channel and hammer both are negated ? If we end up next week in red breaking the yellow channel in style ? Then don't be shy, take truck loads 5400/5300 puts to double triple by april end expiry. But I really don't expect the carnage to be so quick.Someone has said , if nothing is impossible , introduce the believer to Stock Markets. Impossible things happen here.

From Weekly : All dips should be bought for a target 5800 and as 5800 clocks in the ticker positions needs to be aggressively reversed to short side for target breakage of yellow channel with SL 5840.

Note : Catching of small rally 5682 to 5800 with free falling macd , is not my cup of "tea".
I am indecisive from weekly charts , lets come to daily charts , what they say.
Its a clear hint all Nifty trades has to be limited to intraday as choppiness will blow off option premiums in two days up two days down kind of thing. Hence , let's give weight age  to daily charts.

NIFTY DAILY :

Ooo la la . They give a bullish picture as well . A rally looks quick on cards if we open slight green on monday. But alas from weekly target of 5800 , it has even narrowed to 5770 as 13/22 daily ema reside there.

There are high chances prices would go and kiss them and reverse fiercely.
Daily charts says : Buy above 5690 for target 5770 with SL near 5680.

Now wait , will you try to catch this small 80 points rally ? You may be a genius to do so. But alas , this is again not my cup of tea.
I don't like tea without ginger and elaichi .

Nifty Direction looks positive after weekly and daily charts but the upside looks capped.

A perfect trade would be wait enough to SHORT.
But who wants to miss this complete greenery ?

The trick is to start looking into Most Beaten Down Stocks in recent down trip. With Nifty sluggishly pulling up , they are going to be leading the green.

Where are those TATASTEEL , HDIL , MARUTI and most important SBI ?

I have my bouquet of stocks ready for trading which is obvious I am not sharing all with you , but lets throw some light on SBI.

SBI  WEEKLY: 

Weekly MACD is poor , but channel and candlestick  looks very similar to Nifty weekly charts so lets get indecisive from weekly charts and switch to daily charts.

Note : With this contradictions , with everything seems one way and MACD looks like screamingly in opposite direction ( you may be innocent enough to think it has done too much , now it should cool off) , all we need to do is trade with very small time horizon. Mostly intraday trades. Else they result in wide choppiness , nullifying your options in couple of days eating all the premium.

SBI DAILY :

Aaah , a clean Bullish MACD diversion.
A doji with low volumes followed by green candle next day with relative higher volumes.
Everything says go long with first target 13/22 ema in daily charts..
This can be a culprit to give Nifty its desired bounce.


So , now you think it would be wiser to trade SBI for a bounce than Nifty ?
SBI options would offer much higher percent returns when compared to Nifty Options.

But alas again , its evening here and how can I don't talk about my cup of tea .
Trading SBI in long side is NOT in my stocks bouquet.

SS

Trade Plan April Fool Week :

Current Nifty Spot : 5682.55

Only the First Part of my view is posted here. (Because by now I am just done till it).
But before I vomit , what chart I ate (Its chart not chaat) , I want you folks to participate a bit.
I want to hear some of your opinions . 

What you say what will be the next move ? As usual , all possible highlights are present in the chart , and as usual we will start with Weekly Chart.

Amateurs start with daily chart .
Its like boating in a river , First thing to know is which way the river is flowing (Weekly Chart) , Then comes which kind of boat to take (Daily Chart) and then the intraday smaller time frame charts to time the entry into the river.

Can you please try to comment here which way the River will flow next week onwards ? Comment only when you have kept aside all the garbage of your mind and all you see is just the chart I have put.

Nifty Weekly :

I am expecting atleast five different people to comment what they interpret from the chart.

Brainstorming helps.
SS

This Week :

We opened a Gap Up yesterday giving a feel , we have pierced back into the channel and will sail through.
Nifty Slapped on my face by the end of session saying "Bura na Mano holi hai "

Mostly my trades are in options and with such a truncated week , lets step aside .
Current Month Options are dangerous than Tiger's Canine and next month options its too early to start with. Who wants allow premiums to evaporate with no reason.

Lets refrain from trading for this truncated week and get into the festive mood.

Wish you all a very happy holi .
Lets Meet up here Sunday Night with plan for Next Weekdays trade plans.

SS

Trade Plan : 25th March

NIFTY Daily Chart

SS

Its a No trade today.

Its a No Trade today for me.
Because of Lack of direction in the Markets and range bound moves extending to most of the stocks.

Next Move for which the wait is worth prices re-entering to the channel I mentioned as in my day before post. If couple of days things fail out, then short is the direction.

SS

21st March :

12:18 PM : Spot Nifty 5736

When whole world is looking to Short , some are surrendering longs at such a futile pullback.
Be aware : You gonna be ahead.

Do you think Mr. Market is going to reward majority of people ?
Obvious answer is No.

Keep your trades reversed.
Stay Long Go Long.

We are into the channel...a rising channel.

SS

Are things SCARY ahead ?

20th March  11:30 PM : 

First let me blow the trumpet of Technical Analysis and its beauty of interpretation.
This Sunday I had posted about Nifty crack and news will follow. Neither Cyprus fuss existed that time nor DMK .

Just a Week Back I had a long Analysis on SBI . Dig Back and you will be surprised how tick by tick things are dancing to the tunes.

Aren't you convinced TA should be hard codedly followed and news/triggers fall automatically in place?  I leave it upto you , lets come to the mission now :

Why the picture looks scary Now : 

BULLS Need a Gap Up else its the funeral Time.

There is a saying "Chartists draw lines to see what they want to see "
I have been seeing many charts across the board and find the quote worth.

Everyone is drawing channels trend-lines anyway they want to see their wanted direction.
That's Wrong. There are certain rules to draw channels and one should validate them always if the channel is getting respected by market prices or not. That is the only way "a playing channel" is identified.

If anyone remembers my validation of channel play in Tata Steel charts worked wonders while many were lost in their own desperate drawn lines.

NIFTY Daily Chart

Ideally , from a lay man perspective buy near channel lower line and sell near above.
But I don't take decisions without looking at one of the most important thing Volumes.

I repeat BULLS need a Gap Up / escape from lower end of the channel or else there is no escape.

I wish not but coming time there's gonna be lots of blood , sweat and tears.

A ray of hope : We break the channel downwards and clock a new low (not deep enough) putting up a positive macd divergence in daily charts and prices re-enter to the channel zooming all the way up  to the upper end of the channel. But it should take time to develop. May be it will suck out this expiry. Who knows how many days nifty will take to re-enter the channel. Its too early to thing about trading in this expectation.

SS

20th March :

9:10 AM :  I went long with few lots yesterday.
                    Eyeing today for collecting more LONG 's
5705 is the Stop Loss for me.

9:20 AM : Buy orders pushed @ Nifty 5722

9:45 AM : Survived till now. But looks a tough ride. Bets rolling with daily MACD @ poisonous position.  Upside and reversal can be like rocket as we approach day end.
 And during this , bear's attack is a very expected action , surprisingly from the opening bell lol. That was the sole reason of placing SL far away from yesterday's low.

I am above my buying price.
Miser traders tired of their old habit of placing SL at last lows should be out of game by now .

11:20 AM : We are falling back. Currently 5716 . If SL remains untouched , the third attempt to break day high should go strong.  A U turn somewhat from here and don't sell your positions , we will zoom up intraday. I will give up positions if we take out days low.

11:27 AM :  I am thrown out of the ring by Smarter Market.
                    Next time.

SS

Where Nifty is heading to ?

NIFTY : 

It was last Friday when markets were behaving crazy and one of my female friends on fb messaging group was checking with folks , where we are heading to .
I tried to interrupt but stopped myself because I never felt the question was complete in itself.

Where we are heading ?
I need the time frame sir . If you ask me where we will be in 1 week , I will probably gamble upon my words.

Ask me where we are heading finally in next 3-4 months ?

I don't care if you jump out of your couch ,  We are heading to 4700.
Obviously there is no typo , I mean 4700 , 1300 point slide in next 3-4 months.

I don't know how it will happen , some earthquake will occur or will it be same European problems or some war will start or some major company will declare bankruptcy or Some Indian political drama or some new FII taxation laws. I have no clue How it will happen , I only strive that it will happen . Something will follow the trigger.

"If after a long  attempt prices fail to take out a  high and ceases at or near it , don't be confused we are going to take out previous lows"

But why so quick just in 3-4 months ?
I admit your innocence , but if you are new in markets , be aware FALLS always take nearly HALF of the time what Bulls take to get to that level.

Simplest of Nifty Intermediate term charts , Weekly and Daily.

Ok Sir , admitted we are going into bear market , now since you know it already you will be a millionaire ?
 This is the most common thought to arise.
But the ride will not be as smooth as it seems. It will be tough , it will be tricky , it will be illusive and it can even be disastrous even though ultimately we go beyond 4800.
 Look what RBI policy does in Tuesday .
How much Sea Saw Nifty plays to it. But I am sure , Like me many pro's will be shorting all rises.

Catching a top is impossible.
Only Paper Trader and Liars do it.

But Irrespective what shit policy rolls out on Tuesday , I am picking to start SHORTING from intermediate time frame. SBI is my favorite for stocks currently.

If your balls have not grown bigger for Fno trading , this seems to be the last chance (if any , if any spike we see pre /post policy) to DUMP your delivery holdings atleast .

Rupee is going to slide against dollar to boost the slide. Currently at 54 , I see it going to 57-58 in the same time when Nifty will be on its way down.

Don't forget to invite me for a Beer Party if you see 5000 spot in threat in couple of months.
Bear Party or Beer Party whatever you read , but honestly I mean "Beer"

SS
17 March 2103

15th March :

9:18 AM

SHORT SBI @ 2263 Stop Loss 2275

11: 22 AM

SHORT NIFTY for 50 points
SL 5920
Current 5907

IN the Money Options Only. Friday Near strikes will loose drastic premiums.


SS

What's happening Nifty today :

9:50 am : Nifty looks crazy.

Lets wait for inflation figures.
Any positions to stand in front of a moving train , they will be thy crushed.

11:10 AM :

Lets Risk it. I am inclined we are heading to form a Inverted Hns Intraday and eventually it will break to upside , trigger coming from inflation figures reflected by 30 min MACD bullish Cross.

5900CE looks attractive.
Currently near 50
Day Low 40

What to do ?

Lets Go For IT.

5900CE SL @ 42
Buy @ 50

Quantity I am going for is decent one, Neither huge positions nor trivial.

11:46 AM :

Booking Half @ 65
Before the event :D

11:51 AM :

Inflation numbers have come.
Dont look them
Trigger has come

HOLD LONGS.
Idiots start becoming economists to scan the data , chartists Don't.

Hold Longs with SL 5820
All trust on Inverted HnS

Long Booking Station : 5920


12 :27 PM

DON'T FORGET my SBI Charts.
Its nearing where we have planned a head cut.
Will give a shot near 2270 if we get it today , a short with small quantity.

SS

13 March :

Lets KILL Coal India.

9:30 AM

Current Spot : 317
Stop Loss as per your capability.

Target : Below 310 Quick

9:37 am

Lets SHORT HUL

Current Spot : 446.50
Target : 430 by Friday.
SL as per your aukaat !

10:28 AM

LONG NIFTY.
Current Spot : 5882
SL : 5870
Target : 5920 Intraday.

Fair Risk Reward ?
I am in it.

I am lightening positions on Coal India. Loosing Confidence.
Good with HUL and Nifty

10:37 AM :


Racing UP positions in Nifty Longs @ 5874
SL pushed @ 5860 Looking a zoom up soon. Intraday

11:05 am :

Holaaaaa @ Day High..5890+
Good Going...

Either I am too good or the world is idiot.
I think the former has better odds.


SS

Lets Give a Shot :

11:33 AM :

SHORT SBI (Intraday)
Current Spot 2222
SL Day High 2228
Target : 2190

Negative Divergences in 2/5 min


12: 15 PM :

SBI Target HIT. Winding because 2185 is daily 13 ema. Hence the target was always 2190 intraday
60 minutes and 2200PE gains nearly 40 percent.


Eagle EYE.
There is a saying " Retailers are right most of the time but always wrong in timing "
                          Atleast I am not.

SS

Trading is Not a Cake Walk.

Trading is a horrendously emotional rape game.

Its not the game for weak , its not the game of fun or quick money adventure .

Only traders know you die and live thousand times in a week.

Hope it shakes you up ,how hedge funds and floor traders work.

Don't miss the entire series.

Part 1 :

Part 2 :

Part 3 :

Do you still want to be in the game ?

SS

Trade Plan : Nifty/SBI AHEAD :

NIFTY :  We are rising and in style , so now that means  new Nifty highs in coming time ?
                Oh sir I got you then , you were among those who were confident of world end last year.

If you ask me ,
Sooner the later we are going to take out last year lows .

I remember Mr. Suri , who used to call it Nifty cannot rally without banking participating.
Now when I am talking about SBI  , that gives a enough hint for Nifty that golden days are not                                 near , at least not in 2013. We have already seen a daily channel breakage validation with heavy fall and mega volumes in a single day , the recent pull back is currently taking place with half of those volumes .

SBI : May not be immediately , but I see it as Highly Bearish for coming time.

Will not waste time in speaking when charts says it all.
As usual , I am using "Multiple Time frame" analysis to build a strategy.

And it makes it so smooth when we descend from higher time frames to lower time frames and observe what is happening.

Lets SCAN SBI from Monthly to Weekly to Daily
Monthly Charts : Bearish
Weekly Charts : Bearish
Daily Charts : To be Bearish very soon.

NIFTY /SBI : I feel they are going to waste time in very range bound sessions for few days
before taking any direction. Its better to wait more for daily charts  Nifty/Sbi to give confirmation before making any entry attempt in desperation.

Did the recent pullbacks has made you Bull Minded ? You are worried to short ?
"A balloon is burst only if it is well inflated "
If prices don't pull back and gain a respectful levels again , how can the carnage be defined.

And I am surprised by your hypocrisy ,
When bull markets are there  , you say it any fall is healthy for markets.
Where are you now ?
I say now , any Pullback is healthy for BEARS

SS
Happy Maha Shivratri : Bum Bum Bholey !

Trade Plan 8th March :

To start with , why did I attempted a short yesterday with SL 5855 ?
The outcome is no wonder a burn in my pocket but why i did so ?

The answer is simple , with things giving a praiseworthy pull back , Nifty 22 ema near 5850 was only the last hurdle for bulls in neartime. When we were near 5832 , I gave a shot with SL 5855 , but alas Bulls are back with a stab.

Friday is a Important Day. Today's Close has significant Meaning in Weekly Charts as well Daily Charts. If prices sustains a close above 22 ema (5850) today , Close your shorts before they close your account.
I want to LONG each dip with SL 5814 (Nifty 13 ema and a support Line)

Below Daily and Weekly Chart illustrates all , with the simplest of charting since the first post of the blog.

If you want to avoid the burning of head watching Rangebound moves when you are long in Nifty , be smarter.

Pick the Most Beaten stocks in the recent carnage ,
They should rally beforehand Nifty does.
Where are those Tata Steel , Hdil , Sbi etc ?


SS

SHORT NIFTY

2:20 pm

NIFTY SHORT @ 5832 SL 5855

Yeah Full Throttle.

SS

United Spirits Continued :

9 :00 AM 

Things have turned bullish in couple of days , so don't we need to revise our SL accordingly ?
We had already placed them very wide , potentially capable of wiping a good percentage of capital.

The small spurt in last 2-3 days , I want to ride it or if it makes us wait more i prefer to offload it ( Since I am long with out of money calls 2000 .
Can't wait for a complete expiry to stroll.

Lets raise the SL Mast @ 13 ema : 1836
I will be squaring off all my United Spirits positions if prices dip a bit below 1836.
It took hard for prices to rise and give closes above 5 ema , Can't allow it again falling below daily 5 ema , Since its too near the spot price , I am good with 13 ema.

Daily Chart , Zoom In Shot : By the time my SL is not hit , I am perma bull in United Spirits.
                                            Inshallah it gaps up.

9:55 am :

Mind You we have daily 21 ema at 1866 , once we start trading above it , LONGS should be added with SL @ daily 5 ema

10:50 am : 

Even 2 min MACD cooling off , prices not ready to drop below 22 ema .
Spot Prices feel safe enough in Bulls lap. Look at the volumes today Man.
Who's side you want to be ?

Oh please be on short side. I love to take cash from your pockets and see in MY bank accounts !


12 : 25 PM :

Jokeron ki naukri karega kalluuuu ?
SS ki sunega toh margea kalluu,,,,,,,,,,mama kallu mama...

SL @ 1846 (Daily 5 ema)

1:50 PM

SL can be pushed back @ 1836 pertaining to positive divergences in 2/5 min MACD.



SS

6th March :

Dying to trade Nifty ?
Cant Wait ?

Thand Rakho !

I heard the big bears talking :
Waqt aane de bata denge aasman , ham abhi se kya batayen kya hamare dil mein hai...

10 :40 AM

United Spirits Longers : Are you blind not to watch Positve Divergence breakout coming in 30 min MACD , we should bomb in next 60-90 minutes.

Chillaxxxxxxxx

SS

5th March :

Nifty :

SS

4th March :

United Spirits : Unexpected.
                        Who cares ?

Current Spot : 1825
Adding more Out of Money 2000 Calls ( Cheap enough to play the falling knife)

Will square of everything if prices dip below 1780/1750.
No room for ego.

SS

Why I am behind United Spirits ?

United Spirits : Below Daily Chart is all I want to say.

Current Spot : 1878
Target :2200
SL : 1750

Disclaimer : ?
There is no disclaimer to the post/blog. Trade it because I am saying. Only Not Confident , scared , losers pinch disclaimers before they open their mouth.

SS

My few days back post about United Spirits and Nifty.
http://nifty4living.blogspot.in/2013/02/how-news-is-already-known-in-ta.html 
Nifty4living.blogspot.in/: 18th Feb :

United Spirits rallies 8 pc as CCI clears USL-Diageo deal

If anyone remembers my United Spirit post ?

Flag Pole Pattern , Target wont be less than 2200 in coming days.
Its dipping , Long at Dips.

Current Spot : 1900

SS

Trade Plan March Series :

How was your yesterday ?
Haha don't worry ,  things happen.
Stock Markets intellect cant be challenged , not me not you not even Google.

"Market does the most obvious thing in a most trickiest way , every time "

Remember the daily channel you used to look a fortnight ago ?
Such Long Channels failure is always validated with Heavy Volumes and major falls.
I was trying to call for such days 10 days back when we broke the channel if you remember my black friday or black monday posts.

Nevertheless , who knew the most obvious thing had to come in the name of budget trigger.

Call me if you see any charts which says DONT SHORT , let it be nifty or any script.
But , I will prefer to wait.

Let , the storm settle. Let a relief rally come. Its a short on rise market. But how much rise ? No one can answer , because channel breakage is validated now and short is the key .

Market may rise , beyond we can expect , don't short in hurry.
Don't even Long for relief rallies , Just wait or pick some Index Independent Stocks like United Spirits etc.

I have a serious belief , lots of big pockets have sold their deliveries yesterday.

"If after a long attempt , prices fail to take out previous highs or returns back from around it , don't be confused , its going way back to take out its previous lows"
                           -Alexander Elder

SS