Trade Plan 3 October :

NIFTY :  

Weekly -
Lets start with weekly chart .

With MACD crawling near zero mark and prices dancing near major ema's , one thing is certain , in coming weeks , the moves are going to be MASSIVE. Which way ? I cannot make out from weekly charts at this point of time.

Daily -

If the falling channel is into play , we are close to upper end of the channel.
MACD (above zero) is shaping up to fall below zero , look at the macd histogram sliding below zero each day.

If the channel boundaries are respected , macd lines will crack the index falling below zero.
Weekly chart will sing on the tune.

5860 is the point I am considering as crucial for now.
By the time 5860 is not convinvincgly taken out (day close) , its wise enough to GO SHORT .

If we go and give a close above 5860 , don't waste time in blinking your eye , go aggressively long (intraday trades).
Why intraday ? Because even the channel breaks out , re-entry into the channel is never ruled out and that move is wildly ferocious. With volumes not picking up near the channel boundary , I am more biased to short

SS

Trade Plan : 25th Sept

NIFTY :  I have all the reasons to stay/go long.

Daily 13 ema as SL @ 5840

SS

Trade Plan 24th Sep :

Nifty Daily : Fall with volumes drying and 13//22 ema nearby and 30 min macd shaping a bullish turn.

Stop Loss around 5830 and time to pick longs.
We shall post a new high very soon.

SS

Trade Plan 23rd September :

NIFTY : 

Weekly Chart : 

Long term MACD trend is severely BEARISH.
Small term scan goes with severely BULLISH.

This is what makes the weekly charts exciting .

With volumes perking up last week , the immediate move shall be a monster up-move.
Or you wanna short this in the expectation of long term mega MACD bearishness to suppress everything ?
Enjoy your cup of coffee.

I am going with conclusion for bullish views with Weekly Charts.
Stop Loss : As usual lets keep it at 22 ema (5780)

Daily Charts : 

Mail me if you see anything negative with daily charts.
I am all fine with bullish views on daily charts as well.

Stop Loss : 13 ema , 5830 

Each fall , I am taking it as a bliss with longing opportunity.
Depending upon your entry rate and trade instrument :

Stop Losses to follow 5780 and 5830.

SS

19th September : Welcome Green ;)

Weren't you long ?
Its yet not late.

SS

Trade Plan 16th Sep :

NIFTY :

Going with only weekly charts. 

Close above 13/22 ema.
MACD : Signalling a massive up-move possibility.
Volume : Dropping with upmove , putting bullishness in doubt. 
                 Last truncated week has contributed too.

Heavy Volumes shall resume this week ?

I am prefering to stay Long till 5825 is not neatly bowled out.  Odds are wiser as I am looking for a massive upmove.

SS

Trade Plan 12th Sep :

NIFTY

The mammoth pull up i had kept as the small possibility in last post showed up on Tuesday.
Why mammoth ?

1) Weekly MACD ( with this week its curving to give a cross going above 0)
2) Daily MACD ( already moving like a fanatic towards above 0)

Both roared , and the results are crisp clear.

For now , this amazing bull story is shaping up to be bulls all the way.

Weekly 22 ema @ 5825 and that is the only SL for any kind of longs.
Till then its time to buy and buy.

For medium term to long term Nifty direction : This bulls run is meaningless as of now.
 We need to wait for couple of more weeks to see how the upmove forms.

Note : This monday was a holiday , hopefully marking a low volume week with a upmove. Next week volumes will be the key for creating or flushing delivery positions.


SS

Trade Plan 10th Sep :

NIFTY : Current Spot 5680

What's next ?

500 points quick up-move from below 5200 has tossed most of the aggressive shorters.
Few great souls still holding shorts .
And with recent carnage over couple of months , going long is nerve cracking.

Skipping weekly charts , as all action is coming in daily with such a delightful volatility.
Only weekly 13 ema @ 5730 is my point of interest.

Daily :  The downward channel drawn is broken to upside and a close above it.
              But where are the volumes ?
              As a rule , the upper end of the channel has numerous touchpoints (shown in yellow) making it stronger and stronger . A valid break out should attract immense volumes. I am skeptical about the last session up-move and its close.

Daily MACD barking to take a flight upward ,but  lets not forget it's still below 00.


Where are my chips on the table ?

Its in SHORT side.

It may be today or in few sessions , if there is not any mammoth upside with volumes , all slow gradual boring flat sessions would eventually bring back the RED DAYS.


Stay short till 5730  (Weekly 13 ema)
Multiply Shorts below 5620  (Re-entry into falling channel)

SS

















           

Resuming : Sooon ;)

Repeating once again..

"If after a long attempt , prices fail to take out previous highs or returns back from/around it , don't be confused , its going way back to take out its previous lows"
                           -Alexander Elder    

Few highly educated call it double top.



6300--------Current 5390----------4500 ???

 SS

Trade Plan 21st May :

NIFTY : Cannot have put it more simple !

I was little busy over few days . Sorry for missing trade plan last weekend.

SS

Trade Plan 15th May :

NIFTY :  Remember the super bullish Weekly Charts.

Stop Loss 5960.
Hard Stop Loss , if broken Reverse the trade to Short side for severe fall.

At current levels , Go Long , Stay Long.

SS

Trade Plan 14th May :

NIFTY : Yesterday it was a bang and when I look back my charts i feel like banging my head.
                My daily charts posted for this week had a clue about Monday's fall. I could not see it and my attentive readers never pointed out.

Yes I didn't notice the Friday's trading volume bar. It is too small when I plotted 9 month chart that eyes did not catch it and holaa punishment was must.

Look at friday's trading volume. "Extreme minute volumes". Had i looked it I would have not taken the volume drop as "tiny miny volume drops"

Nevertheless , No regrets in Markets , what's next.

Did you notice the Monday's fall ?
Did you notice the Volume ?
Massive fall but volumes did not pick it up. Usually such "Valid Sell off's" should show a tall volume bar.

Remember 5950 . If not go through my couple of days back post.
Here is the link : http://www.nifty4living.blogspot.in/2013/05/trade-plan-7th-may.html#links


We have closed below 13 ema but volumes not picking up and my most crucial support zone 5950 is alive with my  BULLISH weekly outlook...

The trade plan stays very simple to me :

Long above 5990 (13 ema )
Go Short below 5950 for a quick target 22 ema (80-100 more points)
No Trade zone : 5950-5990

Remember my few words : If 5950 Does not offers a quick bounce and prices dance in the range 5940-5980 , tighten the seatbelts for red days. A Solid support should offer quick bounces.

If Prices go beyond 5990 , dont shy. Thy Long ,the weekly bullishness should pull it off.

SS

Correction to the Post : I never knew we had a trading session on Saturday. Lol. The extreme low volumes i talked about on friday is actually the truncated session on saturday that made all the difference.

Technically : The small session that looks meaningless is NOT meaningless on charts.

Trade Plan for 13th-17th May week :

NIFTY :  As usual lets start with weekly charts.

Nifty Weekly : 

Weekly Charts stay Massively Bullish giving no heed to double top expectations.
Lets come to daily charts.

Nifty Daily :

Things are slightly interesting here.

Since few days volumes have been slightly dipping . Almost at the verge of double top what can be next ?

A dip ?
Lets take it if it comes.Any dip should be very slow and should be restricted to 13 ema near 6000 as of today. Like a spring , if any dip comes ,  the prices should uncoil to upside after kissing the 13 ema.

Crudely , it will be idiotic enough to play in shorts.

Why I am paying no attention to double top and 'slight' volumes drop at higher levels ?
Look at the massive bullish weekly charts and Daily MACD histogram/lines going all the way bull.

LONG at every point whenever you feel like.

Only shorting opportunity if prices start ticking below 13ema , a trade for target 22 ema to downside with double top expectations will be my trade but I am not expecting it to happen.


Stock Pics : As mentioning since couple of days : YES BANK and HDIL are my favourite long candidates.

SS

Trade Plan Friday 10th May :

NIFTY : Long each dip. I see NO reason to go short.

Jackpot Trade : Long HDIL as mentioned in yesterday's post.

Stock Pick :

LONG YES BANK.

With Kangaroo tail recently made , a beautiful opportunity to place close SL has come.
First SL 495 , the bets should be in favour of Kangroo tail being respected.

Positional safe traders can choose safe SL 22 ema near 480.

SS

Trade Plan 9th May and Jackpot Trade :

Nifty :  Yesterday candlestick with dip in volumes have made bears a bit impulsive. But wait , you know it , how I prefer to open trade.

They call it hanging man. Let's take it.

With dip in volume , it can be in play. But it needs a validation the next day that is today.
A Gap Down and a intra-day scalp for short side.
A Gap Up ( hanging man would get negated) , long positions can be made.

I am not willing to short as MACD lines and histogram are massively bullish. Stay out to trade nifty if we see a gap down.

Jackpot Trade :

LONG HDIL
Current Spot : 56
Target : Upside Breakout with sky high limits.
Stop Loss : As per position size.

Daily Charts are highly convincing . Can't Miss this.

SS

Trade Plan 8th May :

Nifty : As yesterday long on each dip.

My Trade :

20 percent of my trading capital :

50 percent : LONG YES BANK with 'Options' : Current Spot 508.25
50 percent : SHORT UNITED SPIRITS with 'Options' : Current Spot : 2348

Both Positional with horizon of 3-5 trading sessions. Target atleast 1.5 times the traded option price.
Choosing the right option contract and entry time is subjected to individual trader skills.

Rest 80 percent trading capital for hunting intraday scalps via futures/cash.

Yes Bank and United Spirits , I don't have time to update reasons behind them. Serious traders should find it themselves before opening bell.

SS

Trade Plan 7th May :

NIFTY :

5950 is the most important level for me currently.
I am Perma Bull above it.

Its a delight when all technical's point to One direction in all time-frames.
And that's bullish as per yesterday's close.

Long , Stay Long , Buy All dips with strict stop loss near 5950

Nifty Weekly :

Nifty Daily :

Volumes are dropping as prices come in lower range since 2-3 days. With MACD lines and histogram flying sky highs , up-move is likely to roar in coming sessions.

My LONG positions will be brutally closed if prices start ticking below 5950.
They say "Sell in May and go away" , May be a close below 5950 and you find my next post in reverse direction.

SS

On Vacation.

I am on vacation till second Monday of May.
Till then ,please don't waste your precious time visiting the blog .

SS

Trade Set Up 17th-19th April :

NIFTY :

Stunning pullback on Monday and Tuesday.  Tuesday Candlestick has put zipper on the faces of bears.  Many dead cat bounce definitions  are going for toss.

Current Spot : 5688
Including Nifty and many oversold stocks , last couple of days movement has engulfed many bearish signals.

Weekly Charts : MACD near 00 line and a 'last' bull attack to save the free fall has appeared. 2 days of trading and we are up about 200 points. If weekly candlesticks are taken under consideration , they are in formation of a terrific comeback if prices don't fall for next 3 days.Weekly Charts Summarizes : Bulls are in full force to suppress bears.

Daily Charts : Here are interesting things.
                        Below Chart is a simple base through which my trade setups will spread.

                        Blue Line is broken to upside.
                        Green Line is respected. Will prices take a U turn from green line ? or the upper green line is                   the next Target ??

Among all 3 trend-lines/channels , the Blue line is the Strongest and in play pertaining to simple rules of trend-lines.
It is broken to upside and a close above it.
But wait , where are the terrific volumes needed for a valid breakout ?Will they appear today with zoom breakout of the green channel ?
But as of Tuesday eod , the average volumes puts the upside breakout in doubt.
As most pro traders know 80 percent of breakouts are failures , let's wait with the ax when prices start to dip.


I have no trade plans on Long side. I will wait till prices don't fall back into the blue line. Till then let it fly till all idiots dump their trashing short positions.

Stay position-less , Stay with cash and Wait , wait and .....
SHORT below 5650 for Glorious bear days to resume.

SS

16th April :

9:22 am :

RCOM is a sweet short for Target 70
Current : 77.7
SL 80

9:38 AM :

Close Encounter :
SHORT NIFTY 5700PE @ 106 SL 99

9:41 AM :

HIT HIT HIT in 3 min. Thrown out. Lol

Next SHORT Attempt above 5640 with SL 5660
Daily 22 ema @ 5652
Positional if SL survives.

SS

Trade Plan 15th April Week :

NIFTY : Weekly charts stay bearish and makes no sense posting a 'weekly' chart every week.
               A note : Volumes dropped last week.

Daily Chart : Not interesting either. The daily MACD is going flat . I see the "fierceness" of bears should take a breather now. Nifty should be rangebound for sometime with negative bias.
Any sharp fall should be limited to gap filling of 5450 and again pull ups pull downs.
Only Caterers stay when the party is over.

With results season ON , I am highly interested in few Stocks.
Let's  trade the better odd ticker , avoid nifty and look for some nail biting action :

STOCK PICKS :

I have three choices where my trades will revolve.

TCS LONG.
MARUTI SHORT
LT SHORT.

All three self-explanatory daily charts are below.

By end of this week I am on a vacation with extensive travel. Consider this as my last researched post for April Series. Will resume from second  monday of May.

SS

;)

11:15 pm :

SL 5555

SS

Trade Plan 12th April :

Beauty of Stock Markets is shining as ever.
Bears are frightened and so as the Bulls.

The charts have shaped up perfectly as the big event is next door. They are at Make or Break Levels.
Daily Candlesticks are giving a roller coaster rides for pure tech traders.

Yesterday I went ahead with Level 5630 for two reasons :
Daily 13 ema near 5625 and a daily downward channel upper end at 5628.

Weekly Charts stay bearish. Lets Concentrate on Daily Charts :

What happens in a Classic Bear Market ?
A perfect trade is to BUY stocks at deeply oversold levels and book the profit at nearest  ema in play.
A bear market does not falls in a straight line , each pull back stops at the favorite ema in play and prices reverse. I use 13/22 ema for this.
Stronger the Bear Market prices choose the shorter ema to reverse.

With Nifty Daily , I am playing on HnS Pattern breakdown in play , so all bets are chosen for prices to return from 13 ema. It can be 22 ema (5674) as well but I believe we are not in a mild bear market, its a STRONG ONE.

Nifty Daily Chart :

If you ask me about the classical TA about the candlesticks which the whole street is talking about , here are my 2 words :

Wednesday candle I see it as Hammer a bullish candlestick which needed confirmation on Thursday with heavy volumes and a good white candle. Thursday candlestick did see a slight increase in volumes but definitely not heavy volumes and the candle formed on Thursday was surely not a great one.

Now I see Thursday Candlestick as Hanging Man as preceding candle was bullish.
The Hanging Man Validation needs a Gap down on Friday. Heavy volumes are also needed but that is coming by default on friday , thanks to the big event.

How to trade on Friday ?

Prices might kick off towards 5630 , Be Short Stay Short Initiate Short below 5630.
If prices sustains above 5630 by the end of the day , my all bearish views will be kicked on the butt for few sessions.


If the Black Friday is avoided today and we give a close below 5630 , don't forget to pull your socks for a BLACK MONDAY. The carnage I was expecting this week should take place NEXT WEEK.

Remember 5630 and Remember Me.
I am highly Bearish till 5630 is not cleanly bowled out.

SS

11th April :

 5630 should stop it.
Beyond that my bearish views for few sessions will be dropped.

SS

Trade Plan 10th April :

NIFTY : I am little busy to post detailed plan but like others I wont suggest to short on rise .
                Why ?
             
Because there should be no rise lol.

The Speculated BLACK WEEK is on the table.
5450 Should be the first target and 5300 5200 dunno till where we will have the nosedive.

Remaining 3 days for this week can turn your trading career forever. Which way choice is yours.

SS

Trade Set Up 9th April :

NIFTY :

Yesterday though it looks a event-less day , but it has given lots of clues.
Yesterday two major things happened in the daily charts  :

1) Drop in Volumes.
2) Decent Inverted Hammer daily Candle .

When both walk together , a powerful pullback rally arises in a bear market.

Though reversal signs have started appearing I am not keen to drop my bearish counts due to 2 reasons :

1) Weekly Charts are horrible.
2) A GAP filing activity 5550-5450 is pending since long.
A slide in Market should mint quick 100 points to downside while any rally is a kind of dead cat bounce. Like Many I am will be highly skeptical to prefer long than shorts.

What to do ?? How to place trades , which direction the spring will uncoil ?

 I STRONGLY believe a support is no support if it does not offers a quick bounce. It makes me tilt more towards gap filling process. 5550 should path away to 5450 Quick and Fierce ?

Before taking the SHORT trade , we want to make sure the combo of low volumes with inverted hammer is negated :

Literal definition of Inverted Hammer from stockcharts.com  :

"The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a decline or downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An Inverted Hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation."

A GAP UP and we could rally upwards.

All SHORT Desperate souls should look for Gap Down or even flat opening. I will take no time multiplying my Short Positions if we open RED for a sweet slide to 5450.

A Gap Up would make me laze at rest till the dead bounce is over.
SS

Infy Wipro TCS among TOP Losers in flat Market.

Is any of the visitor here are FII's ??

10:12 AM :

Dont afford to miss the Hns in shape in intraday 2 min and 5 min charts.

SS

Trade Plan 8th April Week :

Moneycontrol headlines excite you ? hahaha

We are highly capable of marking this a week a BLACK WEEK.
The charts in all timeframes are pathetic and a Severe fall is the game in play.

IT Sector , Master of leading rallies has not cracked yet.
Yes , its the NEXT.

IT Stocks should lead the fall.
===============Mark my words


NIFTY :

If you are waiting for any Pull back rallies , let me know when your Santa Claus arrives.

SS

Trade Plan 5th April :

Yesterday my pullback expectations died out with Nifty breaking down . I was thrown out of the position when we hit 5605.

I have a strong feeling of a Massive Black Friday today.

NIFTY :

How many of you remember my 4700 levels ?
I had called it when we were near 5900 and some of my fellow friends had branded me as crazy.

So what do you feel now ? If you still doubt , you wont by I end this small post.
The beauty of Markets is knowing the direction is not enough. We are falling so fiercely that fingers shake out to short such oversold levels.
But alas , emotions kill. Let's be cruel and this time make no mistake  in SELLING not only each rise but each fall.

Why we are in such hurry to fall ? If you remember my weekly charts , the channel is broken big-time till thursday and would probably end the same way after friday close. What is fueling the fall is weekly MACD lines making a free fall towards zero line and negative divergence is on top of cards.

And when it comes to daily charts , I use Sukhani words " Its a pity "

I had warned you at 5900 to sell your deliveries. Its obvious you should have not listened to me but had it alarmed you , you would have done your own studies with broad horizon. Its ain't so tough.

SS

4th April :

9:55 am : 

Khoob Jamega rang jab mil baithenge teen yaar .

Spot 1829
Stop Loss 1810
auur target 1900+

10:05 am :

Nifty @ 5616
I know you all are selling but I will love to Buy .Love to take your money in my wide pockets.
Buying for Target 5700+ by tomorrow end.

Maine bhi yehi socha hai bass fark itna hai tumse pehle socha hai....

SS

Trade Plan 3rd April :

NIFTY : 

As expected up move is visible on the ticker.
From Daily Charts , we wanted to book longs for target 13/22 ema.

We closed above 13 ema @ 5748 , 22 ema is at 5766 .
So lets short it ?
Volumes are drying in the up-move ,  punters like me did not enter into nifty longs. First indication of weakened up-move.

But don't forget the weekly chart , it said shorts to be initiated as soon as 5800 is seen on the ticker with SL 5830.

So , you want to wait for 5800 to short ?
Or you want to short now  with SL@ 22ema 5766 ?
Or you want to wait , if prices fail to cross 5800 and dip back below 22ema 5766 ?
Or you want to short only we dip back below 13 ema 5731 ?
I leave it upto you , your trading style and your understanding of Markets.

SS

1st April :

10:45 AM 

Jab saiyaan kotwaal toh darr kaheka..
5800PE @ 121 Stop Loss 105

SHORTS initiated !

10:50 AM

Second Short
Bharti Airtel @ 292.20 SL Day high 294.6

11:22 AM

NIFTY SL @  119 now.
Current 126 bought at 121

SS

Trade Plan April Series :

NIFTY WEEKLY   :

Looks bullish ? Yes I take it as well ,we are set for a pullback. But what about free falling MACD  ??
If Macd is considered along with the channel and hammer , Its going to be lots of choppiness in the week that will give beautiful trading opportunities .

Prices will tend to rush high , but it will take quite few weeks before macd clocks that bullish curve to upside.
So , if we rally couple of days , then prices will drag for next two. These are trading delights.

Honestly , Option Writers will have a party.
But wait ,  what if channel and hammer both are negated ? If we end up next week in red breaking the yellow channel in style ? Then don't be shy, take truck loads 5400/5300 puts to double triple by april end expiry. But I really don't expect the carnage to be so quick.Someone has said , if nothing is impossible , introduce the believer to Stock Markets. Impossible things happen here.

From Weekly : All dips should be bought for a target 5800 and as 5800 clocks in the ticker positions needs to be aggressively reversed to short side for target breakage of yellow channel with SL 5840.

Note : Catching of small rally 5682 to 5800 with free falling macd , is not my cup of "tea".
I am indecisive from weekly charts , lets come to daily charts , what they say.
Its a clear hint all Nifty trades has to be limited to intraday as choppiness will blow off option premiums in two days up two days down kind of thing. Hence , let's give weight age  to daily charts.

NIFTY DAILY :

Ooo la la . They give a bullish picture as well . A rally looks quick on cards if we open slight green on monday. But alas from weekly target of 5800 , it has even narrowed to 5770 as 13/22 daily ema reside there.

There are high chances prices would go and kiss them and reverse fiercely.
Daily charts says : Buy above 5690 for target 5770 with SL near 5680.

Now wait , will you try to catch this small 80 points rally ? You may be a genius to do so. But alas , this is again not my cup of tea.
I don't like tea without ginger and elaichi .

Nifty Direction looks positive after weekly and daily charts but the upside looks capped.

A perfect trade would be wait enough to SHORT.
But who wants to miss this complete greenery ?

The trick is to start looking into Most Beaten Down Stocks in recent down trip. With Nifty sluggishly pulling up , they are going to be leading the green.

Where are those TATASTEEL , HDIL , MARUTI and most important SBI ?

I have my bouquet of stocks ready for trading which is obvious I am not sharing all with you , but lets throw some light on SBI.

SBI  WEEKLY: 

Weekly MACD is poor , but channel and candlestick  looks very similar to Nifty weekly charts so lets get indecisive from weekly charts and switch to daily charts.

Note : With this contradictions , with everything seems one way and MACD looks like screamingly in opposite direction ( you may be innocent enough to think it has done too much , now it should cool off) , all we need to do is trade with very small time horizon. Mostly intraday trades. Else they result in wide choppiness , nullifying your options in couple of days eating all the premium.

SBI DAILY :

Aaah , a clean Bullish MACD diversion.
A doji with low volumes followed by green candle next day with relative higher volumes.
Everything says go long with first target 13/22 ema in daily charts..
This can be a culprit to give Nifty its desired bounce.


So , now you think it would be wiser to trade SBI for a bounce than Nifty ?
SBI options would offer much higher percent returns when compared to Nifty Options.

But alas again , its evening here and how can I don't talk about my cup of tea .
Trading SBI in long side is NOT in my stocks bouquet.

SS

Trade Plan April Fool Week :

Current Nifty Spot : 5682.55

Only the First Part of my view is posted here. (Because by now I am just done till it).
But before I vomit , what chart I ate (Its chart not chaat) , I want you folks to participate a bit.
I want to hear some of your opinions . 

What you say what will be the next move ? As usual , all possible highlights are present in the chart , and as usual we will start with Weekly Chart.

Amateurs start with daily chart .
Its like boating in a river , First thing to know is which way the river is flowing (Weekly Chart) , Then comes which kind of boat to take (Daily Chart) and then the intraday smaller time frame charts to time the entry into the river.

Can you please try to comment here which way the River will flow next week onwards ? Comment only when you have kept aside all the garbage of your mind and all you see is just the chart I have put.

Nifty Weekly :

I am expecting atleast five different people to comment what they interpret from the chart.

Brainstorming helps.
SS

This Week :

We opened a Gap Up yesterday giving a feel , we have pierced back into the channel and will sail through.
Nifty Slapped on my face by the end of session saying "Bura na Mano holi hai "

Mostly my trades are in options and with such a truncated week , lets step aside .
Current Month Options are dangerous than Tiger's Canine and next month options its too early to start with. Who wants allow premiums to evaporate with no reason.

Lets refrain from trading for this truncated week and get into the festive mood.

Wish you all a very happy holi .
Lets Meet up here Sunday Night with plan for Next Weekdays trade plans.

SS

Trade Plan : 25th March

NIFTY Daily Chart

SS

Its a No trade today.

Its a No Trade today for me.
Because of Lack of direction in the Markets and range bound moves extending to most of the stocks.

Next Move for which the wait is worth prices re-entering to the channel I mentioned as in my day before post. If couple of days things fail out, then short is the direction.

SS

21st March :

12:18 PM : Spot Nifty 5736

When whole world is looking to Short , some are surrendering longs at such a futile pullback.
Be aware : You gonna be ahead.

Do you think Mr. Market is going to reward majority of people ?
Obvious answer is No.

Keep your trades reversed.
Stay Long Go Long.

We are into the channel...a rising channel.

SS

Are things SCARY ahead ?

20th March  11:30 PM : 

First let me blow the trumpet of Technical Analysis and its beauty of interpretation.
This Sunday I had posted about Nifty crack and news will follow. Neither Cyprus fuss existed that time nor DMK .

Just a Week Back I had a long Analysis on SBI . Dig Back and you will be surprised how tick by tick things are dancing to the tunes.

Aren't you convinced TA should be hard codedly followed and news/triggers fall automatically in place?  I leave it upto you , lets come to the mission now :

Why the picture looks scary Now : 

BULLS Need a Gap Up else its the funeral Time.

There is a saying "Chartists draw lines to see what they want to see "
I have been seeing many charts across the board and find the quote worth.

Everyone is drawing channels trend-lines anyway they want to see their wanted direction.
That's Wrong. There are certain rules to draw channels and one should validate them always if the channel is getting respected by market prices or not. That is the only way "a playing channel" is identified.

If anyone remembers my validation of channel play in Tata Steel charts worked wonders while many were lost in their own desperate drawn lines.

NIFTY Daily Chart

Ideally , from a lay man perspective buy near channel lower line and sell near above.
But I don't take decisions without looking at one of the most important thing Volumes.

I repeat BULLS need a Gap Up / escape from lower end of the channel or else there is no escape.

I wish not but coming time there's gonna be lots of blood , sweat and tears.

A ray of hope : We break the channel downwards and clock a new low (not deep enough) putting up a positive macd divergence in daily charts and prices re-enter to the channel zooming all the way up  to the upper end of the channel. But it should take time to develop. May be it will suck out this expiry. Who knows how many days nifty will take to re-enter the channel. Its too early to thing about trading in this expectation.

SS

20th March :

9:10 AM :  I went long with few lots yesterday.
                    Eyeing today for collecting more LONG 's
5705 is the Stop Loss for me.

9:20 AM : Buy orders pushed @ Nifty 5722

9:45 AM : Survived till now. But looks a tough ride. Bets rolling with daily MACD @ poisonous position.  Upside and reversal can be like rocket as we approach day end.
 And during this , bear's attack is a very expected action , surprisingly from the opening bell lol. That was the sole reason of placing SL far away from yesterday's low.

I am above my buying price.
Miser traders tired of their old habit of placing SL at last lows should be out of game by now .

11:20 AM : We are falling back. Currently 5716 . If SL remains untouched , the third attempt to break day high should go strong.  A U turn somewhat from here and don't sell your positions , we will zoom up intraday. I will give up positions if we take out days low.

11:27 AM :  I am thrown out of the ring by Smarter Market.
                    Next time.

SS

Where Nifty is heading to ?

NIFTY : 

It was last Friday when markets were behaving crazy and one of my female friends on fb messaging group was checking with folks , where we are heading to .
I tried to interrupt but stopped myself because I never felt the question was complete in itself.

Where we are heading ?
I need the time frame sir . If you ask me where we will be in 1 week , I will probably gamble upon my words.

Ask me where we are heading finally in next 3-4 months ?

I don't care if you jump out of your couch ,  We are heading to 4700.
Obviously there is no typo , I mean 4700 , 1300 point slide in next 3-4 months.

I don't know how it will happen , some earthquake will occur or will it be same European problems or some war will start or some major company will declare bankruptcy or Some Indian political drama or some new FII taxation laws. I have no clue How it will happen , I only strive that it will happen . Something will follow the trigger.

"If after a long  attempt prices fail to take out a  high and ceases at or near it , don't be confused we are going to take out previous lows"

But why so quick just in 3-4 months ?
I admit your innocence , but if you are new in markets , be aware FALLS always take nearly HALF of the time what Bulls take to get to that level.

Simplest of Nifty Intermediate term charts , Weekly and Daily.

Ok Sir , admitted we are going into bear market , now since you know it already you will be a millionaire ?
 This is the most common thought to arise.
But the ride will not be as smooth as it seems. It will be tough , it will be tricky , it will be illusive and it can even be disastrous even though ultimately we go beyond 4800.
 Look what RBI policy does in Tuesday .
How much Sea Saw Nifty plays to it. But I am sure , Like me many pro's will be shorting all rises.

Catching a top is impossible.
Only Paper Trader and Liars do it.

But Irrespective what shit policy rolls out on Tuesday , I am picking to start SHORTING from intermediate time frame. SBI is my favorite for stocks currently.

If your balls have not grown bigger for Fno trading , this seems to be the last chance (if any , if any spike we see pre /post policy) to DUMP your delivery holdings atleast .

Rupee is going to slide against dollar to boost the slide. Currently at 54 , I see it going to 57-58 in the same time when Nifty will be on its way down.

Don't forget to invite me for a Beer Party if you see 5000 spot in threat in couple of months.
Bear Party or Beer Party whatever you read , but honestly I mean "Beer"

SS
17 March 2103

15th March :

9:18 AM

SHORT SBI @ 2263 Stop Loss 2275

11: 22 AM

SHORT NIFTY for 50 points
SL 5920
Current 5907

IN the Money Options Only. Friday Near strikes will loose drastic premiums.


SS

What's happening Nifty today :

9:50 am : Nifty looks crazy.

Lets wait for inflation figures.
Any positions to stand in front of a moving train , they will be thy crushed.

11:10 AM :

Lets Risk it. I am inclined we are heading to form a Inverted Hns Intraday and eventually it will break to upside , trigger coming from inflation figures reflected by 30 min MACD bullish Cross.

5900CE looks attractive.
Currently near 50
Day Low 40

What to do ?

Lets Go For IT.

5900CE SL @ 42
Buy @ 50

Quantity I am going for is decent one, Neither huge positions nor trivial.

11:46 AM :

Booking Half @ 65
Before the event :D

11:51 AM :

Inflation numbers have come.
Dont look them
Trigger has come

HOLD LONGS.
Idiots start becoming economists to scan the data , chartists Don't.

Hold Longs with SL 5820
All trust on Inverted HnS

Long Booking Station : 5920


12 :27 PM

DON'T FORGET my SBI Charts.
Its nearing where we have planned a head cut.
Will give a shot near 2270 if we get it today , a short with small quantity.

SS

13 March :

Lets KILL Coal India.

9:30 AM

Current Spot : 317
Stop Loss as per your capability.

Target : Below 310 Quick

9:37 am

Lets SHORT HUL

Current Spot : 446.50
Target : 430 by Friday.
SL as per your aukaat !

10:28 AM

LONG NIFTY.
Current Spot : 5882
SL : 5870
Target : 5920 Intraday.

Fair Risk Reward ?
I am in it.

I am lightening positions on Coal India. Loosing Confidence.
Good with HUL and Nifty

10:37 AM :


Racing UP positions in Nifty Longs @ 5874
SL pushed @ 5860 Looking a zoom up soon. Intraday

11:05 am :

Holaaaaa @ Day High..5890+
Good Going...

Either I am too good or the world is idiot.
I think the former has better odds.


SS

Lets Give a Shot :

11:33 AM :

SHORT SBI (Intraday)
Current Spot 2222
SL Day High 2228
Target : 2190

Negative Divergences in 2/5 min


12: 15 PM :

SBI Target HIT. Winding because 2185 is daily 13 ema. Hence the target was always 2190 intraday
60 minutes and 2200PE gains nearly 40 percent.


Eagle EYE.
There is a saying " Retailers are right most of the time but always wrong in timing "
                          Atleast I am not.

SS

Trading is Not a Cake Walk.

Trading is a horrendously emotional rape game.

Its not the game for weak , its not the game of fun or quick money adventure .

Only traders know you die and live thousand times in a week.

Hope it shakes you up ,how hedge funds and floor traders work.

Don't miss the entire series.

Part 1 :

Part 2 :

Part 3 :

Do you still want to be in the game ?

SS

Trade Plan : Nifty/SBI AHEAD :

NIFTY :  We are rising and in style , so now that means  new Nifty highs in coming time ?
                Oh sir I got you then , you were among those who were confident of world end last year.

If you ask me ,
Sooner the later we are going to take out last year lows .

I remember Mr. Suri , who used to call it Nifty cannot rally without banking participating.
Now when I am talking about SBI  , that gives a enough hint for Nifty that golden days are not                                 near , at least not in 2013. We have already seen a daily channel breakage validation with heavy fall and mega volumes in a single day , the recent pull back is currently taking place with half of those volumes .

SBI : May not be immediately , but I see it as Highly Bearish for coming time.

Will not waste time in speaking when charts says it all.
As usual , I am using "Multiple Time frame" analysis to build a strategy.

And it makes it so smooth when we descend from higher time frames to lower time frames and observe what is happening.

Lets SCAN SBI from Monthly to Weekly to Daily
Monthly Charts : Bearish
Weekly Charts : Bearish
Daily Charts : To be Bearish very soon.

NIFTY /SBI : I feel they are going to waste time in very range bound sessions for few days
before taking any direction. Its better to wait more for daily charts  Nifty/Sbi to give confirmation before making any entry attempt in desperation.

Did the recent pullbacks has made you Bull Minded ? You are worried to short ?
"A balloon is burst only if it is well inflated "
If prices don't pull back and gain a respectful levels again , how can the carnage be defined.

And I am surprised by your hypocrisy ,
When bull markets are there  , you say it any fall is healthy for markets.
Where are you now ?
I say now , any Pullback is healthy for BEARS

SS
Happy Maha Shivratri : Bum Bum Bholey !

Trade Plan 8th March :

To start with , why did I attempted a short yesterday with SL 5855 ?
The outcome is no wonder a burn in my pocket but why i did so ?

The answer is simple , with things giving a praiseworthy pull back , Nifty 22 ema near 5850 was only the last hurdle for bulls in neartime. When we were near 5832 , I gave a shot with SL 5855 , but alas Bulls are back with a stab.

Friday is a Important Day. Today's Close has significant Meaning in Weekly Charts as well Daily Charts. If prices sustains a close above 22 ema (5850) today , Close your shorts before they close your account.
I want to LONG each dip with SL 5814 (Nifty 13 ema and a support Line)

Below Daily and Weekly Chart illustrates all , with the simplest of charting since the first post of the blog.

If you want to avoid the burning of head watching Rangebound moves when you are long in Nifty , be smarter.

Pick the Most Beaten stocks in the recent carnage ,
They should rally beforehand Nifty does.
Where are those Tata Steel , Hdil , Sbi etc ?


SS

SHORT NIFTY

2:20 pm

NIFTY SHORT @ 5832 SL 5855

Yeah Full Throttle.

SS

United Spirits Continued :

9 :00 AM 

Things have turned bullish in couple of days , so don't we need to revise our SL accordingly ?
We had already placed them very wide , potentially capable of wiping a good percentage of capital.

The small spurt in last 2-3 days , I want to ride it or if it makes us wait more i prefer to offload it ( Since I am long with out of money calls 2000 .
Can't wait for a complete expiry to stroll.

Lets raise the SL Mast @ 13 ema : 1836
I will be squaring off all my United Spirits positions if prices dip a bit below 1836.
It took hard for prices to rise and give closes above 5 ema , Can't allow it again falling below daily 5 ema , Since its too near the spot price , I am good with 13 ema.

Daily Chart , Zoom In Shot : By the time my SL is not hit , I am perma bull in United Spirits.
                                            Inshallah it gaps up.

9:55 am :

Mind You we have daily 21 ema at 1866 , once we start trading above it , LONGS should be added with SL @ daily 5 ema

10:50 am : 

Even 2 min MACD cooling off , prices not ready to drop below 22 ema .
Spot Prices feel safe enough in Bulls lap. Look at the volumes today Man.
Who's side you want to be ?

Oh please be on short side. I love to take cash from your pockets and see in MY bank accounts !


12 : 25 PM :

Jokeron ki naukri karega kalluuuu ?
SS ki sunega toh margea kalluu,,,,,,,,,,mama kallu mama...

SL @ 1846 (Daily 5 ema)

1:50 PM

SL can be pushed back @ 1836 pertaining to positive divergences in 2/5 min MACD.



SS

6th March :

Dying to trade Nifty ?
Cant Wait ?

Thand Rakho !

I heard the big bears talking :
Waqt aane de bata denge aasman , ham abhi se kya batayen kya hamare dil mein hai...

10 :40 AM

United Spirits Longers : Are you blind not to watch Positve Divergence breakout coming in 30 min MACD , we should bomb in next 60-90 minutes.

Chillaxxxxxxxx

SS

5th March :

Nifty :

SS

4th March :

United Spirits : Unexpected.
                        Who cares ?

Current Spot : 1825
Adding more Out of Money 2000 Calls ( Cheap enough to play the falling knife)

Will square of everything if prices dip below 1780/1750.
No room for ego.

SS

Why I am behind United Spirits ?

United Spirits : Below Daily Chart is all I want to say.

Current Spot : 1878
Target :2200
SL : 1750

Disclaimer : ?
There is no disclaimer to the post/blog. Trade it because I am saying. Only Not Confident , scared , losers pinch disclaimers before they open their mouth.

SS

My few days back post about United Spirits and Nifty.
http://nifty4living.blogspot.in/2013/02/how-news-is-already-known-in-ta.html 
Nifty4living.blogspot.in/: 18th Feb :

United Spirits rallies 8 pc as CCI clears USL-Diageo deal

If anyone remembers my United Spirit post ?

Flag Pole Pattern , Target wont be less than 2200 in coming days.
Its dipping , Long at Dips.

Current Spot : 1900

SS

Trade Plan March Series :

How was your yesterday ?
Haha don't worry ,  things happen.
Stock Markets intellect cant be challenged , not me not you not even Google.

"Market does the most obvious thing in a most trickiest way , every time "

Remember the daily channel you used to look a fortnight ago ?
Such Long Channels failure is always validated with Heavy Volumes and major falls.
I was trying to call for such days 10 days back when we broke the channel if you remember my black friday or black monday posts.

Nevertheless , who knew the most obvious thing had to come in the name of budget trigger.

Call me if you see any charts which says DONT SHORT , let it be nifty or any script.
But , I will prefer to wait.

Let , the storm settle. Let a relief rally come. Its a short on rise market. But how much rise ? No one can answer , because channel breakage is validated now and short is the key .

Market may rise , beyond we can expect , don't short in hurry.
Don't even Long for relief rallies , Just wait or pick some Index Independent Stocks like United Spirits etc.

I have a serious belief , lots of big pockets have sold their deliveries yesterday.

"If after a long attempt , prices fail to take out previous highs or returns back from around it , don't be confused , its going way back to take out its previous lows"
                           -Alexander Elder

SS

Time to Long United Spirits.

9 : 17 am : Current Spot : 1831
11 :05 am : United Spirits  1870+

Eagle Eye. Think Plan Wait Shooot. I have booked it.

12: 20 pm : SBI : 2150 target done , I was not riding it though.



SS

Patient till this weekend .

Markets/Stocks are too over sold to be shorted.
Too risky to go long.

Let's get done with Budget Sessions/Expiry before taking any directional trades.

SS

26th Feb :

9:10 AM:

SBI : Strict SL for Shorts @ 2232

9:56 AM

Closing SBI SHORT @ 2211

10 :00 AM

LONG SBI
Current Spot 2212
SL day low 2203

10 : 12 AM

Phewww
Gone. I am out.

Stay Patient till Railway Budget rolls out.
Stay

10 :25 AM :

SBI position reverse a bad adrenaline mistake.
Should have sticked to my plan , 30 min MACD scared me but eventually daily/weekly/monthly charts killed intraday 30 min macd scaring since long. Huh ............Market Stumped me.....NeverMind !

11:13 AM

SHORT SBI
Current Spot 2195
SL as per your trading instrument.
Target : 2150



SS

25th FEB Live :

11:15 AM :

SHORT NIFTY FULL THROTTLE

SL day high : 5874
Current Spot : 5865

SHORT SBI :

Current Spot : 2217
SL 2239

12:07 PM 

Today is the day when MACD lovers , true lovers/ followers will return home with Gold.
Let it be Nifty or Sbi.

12:30 PM

Is the Gold Shinning ?
Mine Certainly , because I believe a lot whatever I do !

2:30 PM

SBI :  Current Spot 2226
          Spot kissed daily 5 ema (2239) and clocking quite below it. If unable to close beyond it , fill the bag with positional shorts.
          I know few traders who are busy Writing SBI calls.
          I know few amateurs who are busy buying SBI calls , unaware Markets exists in Multiple Time frames.
       
30 min MACD might go wild in last 30 minutes , if the spot approaches towards day high but fails to likely close above 2239 , perfect time to execute your trades , short trades @ market price.

Play Smart . God is not running prices , humans like you and me decide the price !

SS

Trade Plan 25th Feb :

NIFTY :  All stocks are turning bearish. I see no room for any bull comeback in near time. I want to trade few stocks rather Nifty. Nifty may stay range bound or fall . I am not willing to burn my head with range bound movement , I want movement , stocks have it with them.

I have 3 in my kitty , 2 short and 1 long.
Lets start with Long :

 IFCI :  Once upon a time , fortunes used to tick with ifci.
              So when the banking license fuss is back , why not use the trigger.

I see a upside in coming sessions. Lets go LONG with SL 32
Target stays 36 (where 70 percent longs should be booked) and next 40 (for remaining 30 percent)
Current Spot : 33.35

Below are 2 simple daily charts which back up my speculation :

SBI : Trader's Delight.
          I want to SHORT.
Aggressive Shorts here , with SL near 5 ema 2238 . If price go in Red , Intraday player like me will block the SL @ 2200. If it ticks slight or in green , I will attemt to ax it down with SL 2238.

AXIS BANK :  Long Bull Run and no profit booking ?
                          MACD has answered it all.

Stocks are offering a lucrative opportunities to play Shorts.
Don't sit at the shore any more , dive in ....


P.S I had to close United Spirits feb calls in handsome loss. But I have not forgot. I have my gun greased , will load in with March Calls very soon.


SS