Wednesday, 28 November 2012

Trade Plan 29th Nov (Nov Expiry) :


NIFTY : What happened on Tuesday. A big bull run.
               I had a trade plan ,it was for short. Went in trash.
But why it missed . I can spot it , can you ?
Here is the daily Nifty chart posted on Sunday , the MACD cross possibility turned into a reality.
Crossover on daily time frames is a powerful event , has a potential to post bull days like Tuesday.
We kept the MACD cross possibility in background and went ahead with other details in short direction.

Chart we were considering till Sunday  :


But , we had the view NOT the traded positions.
Former is primary.

Whats NEXT ?

Lets see where are we , here is the Nifty Daily Chart.



I am expecting a Range :
5740- 5665
 When prices are near 5740 , a chance to shorts should be given for a smooth slide till the lower line of red channel ,5670 . SL 5741

When prices come near 5670 , a chance to longs should be given for a smooth upside till the upper end of red line .

Since the red channel is a falling channel , short side trades would reap better than longing in midst of the falling channel.

Both type of strategies should be in Sync with Daily MACD.
That is the exact reason I went SHORT with small quantity DEC series , respecting the RED channel.

What above 5740 ?

5740-5780 ( No trade Zone , No Nifty trades in this range)

Wait till we are above 5780 . If daily MACD clocks higher than horizontal line , GO LONG above 5780 with SL just below it.

If we clock above 5740 or even 5780 and take a dip below RED channel again , DONT MISS the slide , we might do a quick 100 point slide. In such possibility ,MACD should reverse before the horizontal line and inform us prior to the event via a negative divergence.

Between 5740 -5780, WAIT and WATCH.
If prices fall back INTO the RED CHANNEL , SHORT FULL THROTTLE.
If prices shoot up 5780 , Go LONG with SL below 5780.


Where is the Weekly Direction ?

The BEAR Kangaroo set up , had a tail with 5678 low and 5778 as high.
As per Alexander , perfect SL lies exactly in between of this tail.

Its 5733 Currently. Possibility is ALIVE.





If we slide down for Thursday and Friday not posting any high above 5735 , the bear setup should gain confidence.
Expect BEAR RULE in coming weeks is a POSSIBILITY.

History Says , DECEMBER month is ruled by the bulls. Weekly bearishness may sign off .
Technical Analysis is based on the fact History repeats.

Lets wait and see how things go ahead .

P.S.
Repeating My words : Having a trade plan ready and actually trading in real time are complete different things needing astronomically different skills. You may be a Albert Einstein overnight , but a Charlie Chaplin has equal rights to steal the show during trading hours.
All that matters is 9:15 am to 3:30 pm

SS





















2 comments:

  1. Hii SS
    from ur posts it is seen that U r using 70% technical and 30% psychological which is completely opposite of what u hav written here on right section of your blog. U seem to be dependent heavily on charts, indicators and japanese candlestick formations which hardly tell any1 right direction of the market. It is common sense which tells how markets gona be in near future.

    Trading is an art not a perfet science the way u show charts here.
    anyways no intention to criticize u just a suggestion.

    regards

    ReplyDelete