Thursday, 28 February 2013

Time to Long United Spirits.

9 : 17 am : Current Spot : 1831
11 :05 am : United Spirits  1870+

Eagle Eye. Think Plan Wait Shooot. I have booked it.

12: 20 pm : SBI : 2150 target done , I was not riding it though.



SS

Wednesday, 27 February 2013

Patient till this weekend .


Markets/Stocks are too over sold to be shorted.
Too risky to go long.

Let's get done with Budget Sessions/Expiry before taking any directional trades.

SS

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

26th Feb :

9:10 AM:

SBI : Strict SL for Shorts @ 2232

9:56 AM

Closing SBI SHORT @ 2211

10 :00 AM

LONG SBI
Current Spot 2212
SL day low 2203

10 : 12 AM

Phewww
Gone. I am out.

Stay Patient till Railway Budget rolls out.
Stay

10 :25 AM :

SBI position reverse a bad adrenaline mistake.
Should have sticked to my plan , 30 min MACD scared me but eventually daily/weekly/monthly charts killed intraday 30 min macd scaring since long. Huh ............Market Stumped me.....NeverMind !

11:13 AM

SHORT SBI
Current Spot 2195
SL as per your trading instrument.
Target : 2150



SS

Monday, 25 February 2013

25th FEB Live :


11:15 AM :

SHORT NIFTY FULL THROTTLE

SL day high : 5874
Current Spot : 5865

SHORT SBI :

Current Spot : 2217
SL 2239

12:07 PM 

Today is the day when MACD lovers , true lovers/ followers will return home with Gold.
Let it be Nifty or Sbi.

12:30 PM

Is the Gold Shinning ?
Mine Certainly , because I believe a lot whatever I do !

2:30 PM

SBI :  Current Spot 2226
          Spot kissed daily 5 ema (2239) and clocking quite below it. If unable to close beyond it , fill the bag with positional shorts.
          I know few traders who are busy Writing SBI calls.
          I know few amateurs who are busy buying SBI calls , unaware Markets exists in Multiple Time frames.
       
30 min MACD might go wild in last 30 minutes , if the spot approaches towards day high but fails to likely close above 2239 , perfect time to execute your trades , short trades @ market price.

Play Smart . God is not running prices , humans like you and me decide the price !

SS

Sunday, 24 February 2013

Trade Plan 25th Feb :


NIFTY :  All stocks are turning bearish. I see no room for any bull comeback in near time. I want to trade few stocks rather Nifty. Nifty may stay range bound or fall . I am not willing to burn my head with range bound movement , I want movement , stocks have it with them.

I have 3 in my kitty , 2 short and 1 long.
Lets start with Long :

 IFCI :  Once upon a time , fortunes used to tick with ifci.
              So when the banking license fuss is back , why not use the trigger.

I see a upside in coming sessions. Lets go LONG with SL 32
Target stays 36 (where 70 percent longs should be booked) and next 40 (for remaining 30 percent)
Current Spot : 33.35

Below are 2 simple daily charts which back up my speculation :



SBI : Trader's Delight.
          I want to SHORT.
Aggressive Shorts here , with SL near 5 ema 2238 . If price go in Red , Intraday player like me will block the SL @ 2200. If it ticks slight or in green , I will attemt to ax it down with SL 2238.


AXIS BANK :  Long Bull Run and no profit booking ?
                          MACD has answered it all.





Stocks are offering a lucrative opportunities to play Shorts.
Don't sit at the shore any more , dive in ....


P.S I had to close United Spirits feb calls in handsome loss. But I have not forgot. I have my gun greased , will load in with March Calls very soon.


SS

Friday, 22 February 2013

What's Next ?


I have no Clue.
Spectator Mode yet again today.

Monday on wards , let's enter the battle.
I will love to see the trading desperateness of people today , who can attempt short of such over sold tickers and who will attempt longs in a falling knife situation.

Expect low volumes today if wise traders think alike.

SS

Thursday, 21 February 2013

Trade Plan 21st Feb : BULLS have an edge.


NIFTY : Moves are going to be FIERCE in coming 2-3 sessions from today.

Why ?

Channel Re-Entry or Failure
MACD Bullish Crossover or Failure
Volumes are picking
RSI has just melted from its over zone levels.

All above factors can make a Sparkling Move very soon.
But which way ?

If channel entry fails without macd cross , bloodbath.
If prices re -enter to channel with macd bullish cross , BULL RUN.

Where to put the money , bull or bear ?

I say : " Bulls have an EDGE "
because :

1) Channel re-entry is the MOST PERFECT trade in direction of channel as long term channel don't break easily, even if they do , prices return back.

2) Volumes picking Up , if channel was not to be pierced , what the hell volumes doing here.

3) MACD has shaped up to signal a jet set go position as soon as prices enter the channel.

4) RSI just left the oversold zone and now should aim straight to overbought zones.





"Bet with your HEAD not HEART"
                     via WW jee.

SS

Wednesday, 20 February 2013

20th Feb :


9:10 : AM

Covering those poor 2 lot of shorts in the opening ticks.
Market moving beyond my trade plan.

Spectator Mode On .

SS

Tuesday, 19 February 2013

19th Feb :


NIFTY :  Muaaah , Come , I am here to ax you down.

3:25 pm

SHORT starting with 2 lots @ 5945
Positional , Kal dekhenge what to do :)

SS

Monday, 18 February 2013

18th Feb :


9:20 AM

You guessed it right .

I am LONG positional in McDowell.
Wonderfull Bullish Chart Pattern in Daily and makes Cup nd Handle pattern in 30 min charts.

Longs should be positional . The Sand Diago Deal should be positive which should come by end of this month.


SS

Sunday, 17 February 2013

Trade Plan : 18th Feb


NIFTY :  Remember I had pushed my SL of shorts to 5882 during Friday . Why ? Because above it we would have broken above the downward channel for which I was playing.
We did by the close and now prices are acting smart to bluff the shorters.

"Tum Ser to ham sawa ser "

We might bounce. I am using the word Might.
Monday I am expecting a boring session with prices trying to push themselves higher.

We might bounce till 13 ema or yellow line shown in charts.
I am position less and will Short again as close as to 5950 .




Perfect Plan to trade Nifty : Hold On. Let the prices jump to Short Again.
                                               Not intending to play for the bounce because in the End we have to Fall and we might even fall without a bounce. So better wait and watch.

Remember : Sitting on sidelines is the only position where risk of losing is 00.

FORTUNE Trade :  I will post it at 9:30 am on Monday Morning . Why ?
                                  Looking at the high number of visitors of the blog , I want my positions to get traded before multiple orders interfere with my limit price. I will trade it in first 5-10 minutes then post it here right away.

SS
                                             

Saturday, 16 February 2013

How news is already known in TA ?


Watch out for the Fortune Trade Set up this weekend  !

Naah its not Nifty , its a high news led stock in action these days.
 Nothing has changed a bit to bulls side yet. Detailed Nifty Set up later in the weekend.



SS

Friday, 15 February 2013

15th Feb , Black Friday ?


Yesterday I had a disappointing day.
1st Nifty Long Trade had to be closed in loss.
2nd Sbi Long Trade had  again to be closed in loss.
3rd Sbi Short Trade recovered few losses.
4th Nifty Short is still a Running Trade.

I had in my trade plan to go short below 5900 for 100 point target slide.  My Nifty shorts were taken positional with same point of view.

 " Cheat me once , shame on you.......... , cheat me twice , Shame on Me "
With this confidence , lets see what is the plan for Friday...

NIFTY :

SHORT is my direction. A bright possibility of Black Friday.
Positions are already traded , I will place a comfort stop (little wide) and concentrate on few stocks rather. I am in no mood to close positions before 5940/5920. Probably we will open GAP DOWN and 5901 will be a good SL (almost cost price)

Below Weekly and Daily charts are self explanatory of my Nifty Views :




Whoever said not to put all eggs in one basket  must be a Trader not poultry expert.

Let's dig few stocks and plan how to trade them today :

12:08 PM 

Just securing the Nifty Shorts , SL slight above cost and relaxing.

Not for weak hearten :
I went Long in McDowell for Intra day @ 1870

Please long TATASTEEL , please study some rocket science and derive a conclusion to long it , but believe me your money will be in MY POCKET.

1:19 pm

Booking Mc Dowell @ 1911
Nifty , Tisco shorts still running

1:32 PM

Ever Dipped Ganga ?
For Nifty now at 1:30 pm , Current : 5872
Clip your nose , close your eyes and get ready for a dip.

SL @ 5882 now


1:52 PM 

1..2...3.... Magic Start




2: 30 pm

Magic could not happen.
Magic finish.

SL got Hit.
30 min Macd has magically posted a crossover with bullish engulfing.

Wrapping up tisco as well.


Never mind , a satisfactory day.
Done for today. 



SS

Thursday, 14 February 2013

Valentine's Day Live :


10 :45 am :

My friend Spidey use to say "Don't enter the storm , sit on a tree top , let the storm settle , come down , there will be lots of dead fish to eat "

I have positioned myself on tree top.
Let the results come , things settle.
We will trade and make money.

Lets trade not gamble.

Stay Live , will post as soon as I shoot my first trade.
Probably , 30 min after results are out.

12:03 PM

As per the trade plan of today , we are holding above channel.
LONG NIFTY
Current Spot : 5932
Strict Stop Loss : Day Low ?


30 min MACD is finally taking a turn with last 2 bullish candles engulfing the previous one.
Strict stop loss is must , I don't know when SBI results are coming. Better they come after market timing , we are doing good.

12:19 pm

Burrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Closing positions . Low yet to be beached but am closing it in 17 point loss

Next Trade 


Idiots jump in quick after their SL is hit.
Time to sit patiently and follow the plan , Short only below 5900
and long above 5965.....

If we dont , this will be the last trade of today which proved a bad one.


12: 47 PM

LONG SBI
Current 2240

Stop Loss : 2205

Wide SL for bigger target.
Heart Beats can be balanced by keeping the position small.


2:10 PM

Closing SBI @ 2222

What a wakaaau day.
Both trades went BAD :/
Good Luck All


2: 14 PM


Going SHORT SBI @ 2222

2: 39 PM

SHORT NIFTY @ 5903


2:45 pm

Close SBI short @ 2206
Hold Nifty SHort
SS

Trade Set Up : Valentine Day


NIFTY :

Daily Charts : If we look at them , it looks a 50-50 gamble. Prices may zoom in , into the channel OR crack like no floor.Even  Daily MACD has taken a shape where it can come back or fall down. All Mess.

What to do ?

Let's See Weekly Charts .
Aah we saw it 2 days back , they wont change :D

All clue has to come from Daily Charts itself.
Clue for a Gambler , trade Plan for a Trader.

Let's Zoom in the daily chart and here it goes , its self explanatory.



LONG ABOVE 5970 to cash in at least 100 points to upside.
SHORT BELOW 5900 to cash in at least 100 points to downside.

If prices stay above the falling channel after SBI results buzz is quiet , wait till Nifty takes out its daily 13 ema and initiate long with SL @ 5 ema. Desperate souls who cant wait till Nifty takes out 5962 ,can  LONG it with Super Hard SL 5900.
If prices fall back into the channel , don't FORGET to wait a bit before they stabilize inside the channel , 15 minutes is standard , if they do so ,initiate SHORT , add more and more.


The RULE says , Channels are NOT broken easily. I am biased for a BULL RUN and looking for long opportunities rather desperately going SHORT.


SBI :  I had drawn few charts but not posting anything here. SBI results are major events and I am staying out  to trade it.
All time frame charts are super bearish , but the way it has fell in recent past , I believe any form of results will result in Bull Run and a short covering rally should emerge .

All skilled traders should be waiting for the news to sell the rumor they have been buying.
Ideally , technically its too late to Short Sbi anymore.

United Spirits : Though it should bounce back after a visit to its value zone (1835-1845)  , I don't encourage trade in such high volatile news flow based counter where promoters are in action.


See you in the ring in sometime !

SS

Wednesday, 13 February 2013

13 th Feb :


NIFTY : 

Back into the long term daily channel . Your adrenaline is pumping to go Long quick aiming target sky highs ?
Mine not , I will wait for the SBI results tomorrow.


Rest I am Not Trading today .
Few engagements kept me busy and could not prepare any plan related to any stock nor I did expect Nifty to be in such hurry.

To make your visit worth today , quoting something :

Know the trader in/around you ,

Amateur Trader will spend time understanding Method  .(TA , EW, Fibonacci etc)
Experienced Trader will be found spending time with Mind ( Trading Psychology)
Successful Traders are done with all , they spend major time in Money Management.
          -Alexander Elder


SS

Tuesday, 12 February 2013

12 feb Live :

9:37 AM 

SHORT MCDOWELLS Chu&&yon

CMP : 1930
SL 1940

10:03 AM

My friend taught me to write in hindi 
फक़ ऊ 

Haha

10:26 AM

MC Dowel below 1900
It has took several years of hard work and painful experience to talk like genius giving you 30 point slide in 20 minutes with 10 point SL.

10 : 41 AM :

Trading Nifty is equivalent to licking your elbow. If you can , you can mint money today.
Else no use. We are taking no decisive direction. Its all a time waste index ticks . Let the IIP come  or Sky falls , stand still index.


1:19 PM :

" Market finds out what's your weakness , it hits you right there , if you are greedy it will seduce you , if you are frightful , it will frighten you . Whatever your problem is , Market will find it  , Trading requires a very high degree of psychological maturity , its a difficult game , but to me its the most interesting and fascinating game in the World "
                                             -Alexander Elder


SS

TATA STEEL and HINDALCO: Classic Charts :

TATASTEEL :

I went SHORT yesterday , remember.
Lets dig why , and why the header is Classic Charts.

My positions were in line with Long Term Falling Channel as prices have re-entered into it , giving us super trading opportunities for enormous fall .

But wait , today looking for my exit plan of the position , I figure out one newer channel in which prices is rising is also into play. Its a STRONG Channel . As strong as longer one but its just its a newer channel.

Older the channel (more touch points) , Stronger it is.
Clubbing it with MACD in different time frames ,the  newer channel falls weak here as well.


The submerge of 2 channels and prices exactly ticking (380-390) ,on the verge of breakdown at longer channel perspective and bounce from newer channel reference , taking decisions is a challenge to traders.
It will be a NEW LEARNING at least for me , now how prices will react. Which channel will be respected .

TISCO channel validity ,daily , weekly charts ( biased for longer term channel as mentioned above)




I am already into a position and can't hide under the bush of new learning , making my trading into Gambling.
Money Management will make me sail through these tough times.

I am into 400PE. I will be cutting all positions early today.
I will be taking 1 lot , just 1 lot 360PE ( as I feel if longer channel is respected , fall will be severe).

Tomorrow , it has results.  Charts are too challenging for me too keep any aggressive positions.
1 lot money should be in the ring as going with rule , stronger channel , larger respect.

HINDALCO :

Another script from the same sector .
The charts here are also not a cake walk.

This turmoil depicts the metal demand equations in turmoil in China . News flows from there impacts fundamentally  to particular these stocks giving them wild moves . I have no knowledge what they talk about.

Please comment which channel you think is into play in Daily Charts below.
I am negating RED channel as volume since 2 days have been heavy , which should not have been the case if Red channel is in play. This makes a strong case of Black Channel as, prices re-entry is welcomed by huge volumes and fall . MACD has dropped below last lows (yellow line) and blood bath was/is likely.


SS



Monday, 11 February 2013

Trade Plan 11th Feb :

11th Feb and 12th Feb stands as birthday of my two very close friends. Happy Birthday to them.

NIFTY :  If you are here to get a good feel for your SHORTS as I have been advocating them since long , I wont be able to please you much.

You have Longs and you feel excited now ? Don't have any good news for you either.
All options should be closed on Monday , this week I am speculating a RANGE BOUND movement in Nifty , useless to trade the index. 
Probably We will wait for budget fever to take over before any action on Index. Till then a time waste in 30-50 points will take place and option buyers will end up screwing their premiums on both side.

Let's diagnose what's keeping me away from trading Nifty this week .

Yes , no new techniques , no smaller time frame charts ,no Fibonacci  no EW no Wolfe no Astro no Rocket Science.
My same , Triple Screen with MACD/EMA/RSI/Channels as indicators and nothing else.

With this I remember my engineering days , I had lots of bright students in my class , potentially too good , too worth . There was a fashion of studying subject from reference books, journals , foreign authors , big thick fat impressive books. If you are found with those books , people tend to look UP to you with lots of respect and supposedly you rule all . You know everything a engineer should know , you are supposedly too deep analyst , you are a deep thinker ,you are your teacher's favorite.

Why I should have stayed away from that charming geek world , why should i sustain the embarrassment of studying from the same local author thin books having poorly drawn charts  and sometimes spelling mistakes.
I started trying them too . I liked few , too much.  But very soon I realized they are pushing me away from my objective , this way I wont be able to stick to my syllabus. The contents are too way out of world with very tough English which needed dictionary to sit with and all chapters had a PhD content. I needed to pass in exams first , ( I swear by God I had no heroic feeling of becoming a true engineer , I just wanted to pass in the exams man and better if I do it with good marks) . My Objective was to clear exams , get Marks.
I left the heroic act of becoming a passionate true Engineer with deep knowledge of my subject and stuck with my Objective.
All friends who were still pushing themselves with those books had the same objective as like me , somewhere deep hidden in their hearts , over buried with the desire of the world to take them seriously .
I finished my rest of engineering studying those local authors books , something that I could understand marking direction of my objective. Local Authors Kept me busy , all those years . I stayed Objective Driven .
My Objective here stands to Make Money .
Let's be back to my Nifty View with  MY Same simple tools :

Daily Charts : INDECISIVE

Close Look Daily Charts : Small downward channel into play limiting the trading range . MACD needs to fall much lower to give a blood bath.

Weekly Charts : Signalling bears are getting weaker , killing hopes of short trades and with MACD going almost flat....the week will be useless to trade something like options.

All three charts posted below are self explanatory , syncing all , nothing impressive trade comes to mind . Its a stay away Market until indicators or prices confirm the RE-Entry into the Channel or a complete failure . Probably Budget sessions will bring lots of action and trading opportunities in times ahead.






I am looking for some Stock Specific Action today .
Stay tuned to support or criticize the same. Wish you all the luck to stop me from making money.

Oh, I need to finish off my self obsessed boring college story .
I stayed top scorer of my class for multiple consecutive semesters.

SS


9:25 am :

SHOOT TATA STEEL
Current Spot : 385.50
Target : Incredible
SL : To your aukaat !

1:50 PM

Tata Steel goes as positional trade.
Aaaj nahi toh kal , deam girl.

Done for the day.
Thanks All


SS


















Saturday, 9 February 2013

Best Trader of Early 1900 's :

If you haven't heard of him , you are good  , Ignore the post and close the browser.
If you have heard of him , know more .

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
                        ----Jesse Lauriston Livermore

Ironically ,
A lifelong history of clinical depression had become the dominant factor in his final years.


Welcome to Stock Markets , Game of Psyche , Game of  Wisdom , Game of Ups and down , Game of SELF BELIEF :
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 – November 28, 1940), also known as the Boy Plunger and "Great Bear of Wall Street", was an American stock trader. He was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929.

Born in Shrewsbury, Massachusetts, Jesse Livermore started his trading career at the age of fourteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father intended for him. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the Paine Webber brokerage in Boston.
He married his first wife, Netit (Nettie) Jordan of Indianapolis, at the age of 23 in October 1900. Less than a year later, he went broke after some reverses in his stock trading; for a new stake, he asked her to pawn the substantial collection of jewelry he had bought her, but she refused, permanently damaging their relationship. They separated and finally divorced in October 1917. His second wife was Dorthea (Dorothy) Wendt. They had two sons, Jesse Jr. and Paul. His third wife was Harriett Metz Noble.

Wall Street :

While working, he would write down certain hunches he had about future market prices, which he would check for accuracy later. A friend convinced him to put his first actual money on the market by making a bet at a bucket shop, a type of gambling establishment that took bets on stock prices but did not actually buy or sell the stock.
By the age of fifteen, he had earned profits of over $1,000 (which equates to about $23,000 today). In the next several years, he continued betting at the bucket shops. He was eventually banned from most bucket shops for winning too much money from them. He then moved to New York City and devoted his energies towards trading in legitimate markets. This change would lead him to devise a new set of rules to trade the market.
During his lifetime, Livermore gained and lost several multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3 million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes, respectively. He subsequently lost both fortunes. Apart from his success as a securities speculator, Livermore left traders a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasizes increasing the size of one's position as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly.
Livermore sometimes did not follow his own rules strictly. He claimed that his lack of adherence to his own rules was the main reason for his losses after making his 1907 and 1929 fortunes.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

The popular book Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefèvre, reflects on many of those lessons. Livermore himself wrote a less widely read book, "How to trade in stocks; the Livermore formula for combining time element and price". It was published in 1940, the same year he committed suicide. There is some speculation that this partnership between the two men was not their first collaboration. Since Lefèvre was a writer and journalist, it is thought that he was one of the friendly newspapermen that Livermore employed for both information and planted articles.


Wall Street success

Livermore first became famous after the Panic of 1907 when he sold the market short as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, he predicted that there would be a sharp drop in prices when many speculators were simultaneously forced to sell by margin calls and a lack of credit. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.
He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets from 1908–1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting downtrend.
He owned a series of mansions around the world, each fully staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled yacht for trips to Europe. He married his second wife, Dorothy, a beautiful Ziegfeld Follies showgirl, on December 2, 1918, when he was 41 and she was 18.
Livermore continued to make money in the bull markets of the 1920s. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions, and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the Wall Street crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits.

Favorite book

One of Livermore's favorite books was Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. This was also a favorite book of Bernard Baruch, a stock trader and close friend of Livermore. He also was one of the few people who did well in the crash of 1929.
Jesse cited a lot of jokes, including an old story about "selling down to the sleeping point" from the book Speculation as a Fine Art by Dickson G. Watts.

After the Crash of '29

Dorothy finally filed for divorce and took up temporary residence in Reno, Nevada, with her new lover, (and later 2nd husband) Walter Longcope. On September 16, 1932, Dorothy divorced Livermore on grounds of desertion. They had been married 14 years. Dorothy retained custody of their boys.
On March 28, 1933, Livermore married 38 year old Harriet Metz Noble in Geneva, Illinois; there was no honeymoon. It was Harriet's fifth marriage; all four of her previous husbands had committed suicide.Livermore would be no different.
Through unknown mechanisms, he yet again lost much of his trading capital, accumulated through 1929. Thus, on March 7, 1934, the bankrupt Livermore was automatically suspended as a member of the Chicago Board of Trade. It was never disclosed to anyone what happened to the great fortune he had made in the crash of 1929, but he had lost it all.

His book

All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.
—Jesse Livermore, How To Trade In Stocks
In late 1939, Livermore's son, Jesse Jr., suggested to his father that he write a book about his experiences and techniques in trading in the stock and commodity markets. This brought a flash of life back into Livermore, and the book was completed and published by Duell, Sloan and Pearce in March 1940. It was titled How To Trade In Stocks. The book did not sell well, World War II was underway, and the general interest in the stock market was low. His methods were still new and controversial at the time, and they received mixed reviews from stock market gurus of the period.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.


Suicide

On November 28, 1940, Livermore shot and killed himself in the cloakroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. The police revealed that there was a suicide note of eight small handwritten pages in Livermore's personal notebook. It was reported in the November 30 issue of the New York Tribune. The press wanted to know what it said, and the police tersely responded: “There was a leather-bound memo book found in Mr. Livermore's pocket. It was addressed to his wife.” A police spokesman read from the notebook: “My dear Nina: Can’t help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie”.
He left behind two sons Jesse Jr. and Paul.
Untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totalled over $5 million. A lifelong history of clinical depression had become the dominant factor in his final years.

Source : Wikipedia

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ironically ,

He stands by his quote .
You missed the last line .
"Untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totalled over $5 million."


The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
                        ----Jesse Lauriston Livermore



SS

(This post will not hit your head at one go , it will need repeated readings what I am trying to say)





Friday, 8 February 2013

8th Feb :


9:10 AM :  Bye Bye Reversal hopes :D

SHORT with SL 5952
HnS in 30 min charts.

BEARS are BACK.


9:27 am :

6000pe @ 94
Placed SL @ 92.30 (option low)

9:37 am :

Pushing Back the SL @ 84.95
I am aggressive on nifty cracking , dont want the SL to be so conservative.
My target for 6000PE stays 125 + ATLEAST.


Ready for a BLACK FRIDAY ?
I am !

10 :51 am :

All retailers who are in myth of money making process so easy just drawing a trend line in a daily chart and start buying for a bounce. .

Your all money will be taken by few genius around. Very Soon .



12:25 PM


Keh Ke Lunga !




1:10 PM


We have broke down. We  have broken the long term channel to downside.
Bleeding below days low , below 5923 now...

The few genius I was talking about includes Me .
Thanks all idiots for pouring your money in,
I am pocketing all.

Sorry ;)





3:13 PM :

CRACKED........

NEW LOW and low and low.
All channels broken and a close coming below all deadlines.

I have done my job . Probably you did not , find time to read some more books before entering to trade.

Have a great weekend.



SS

Trade Plan 8th February :


NIFTY :  

Yesterday a long legged doji , warns the existence of bulls.
Most logical opening today should be a gap up.

But we need to make money rather feeling the pseudo confidence by speculating the Nifty trajectory.

What is my plan ?

Before it  , lets be aware a doji is a indecisive candlestick ( potentially reversal indicator) but it is validated only and only by the next day prices.
If we open in good green , its the reversal time and all the way bulls are back and we open down , we will take a deep dive.

But Not that easy as said. Lets dig it further and sync it with our trading decisions.

If we open green , I have levels where I will SHORT again and become a BULL above that level.
The level I show it as decider line in the chart below :
If we open up and get stuck in daily downward channel , we will again make a bloodbath.
Bulls have to , in any case have to open above the falling channel and stay above it. Below it , a tick to down and traders like me will butcher it to the dearth.




Let Nifty Open anywhere , let it dance for first 15 minutes.
If prices are below 5960 , SHORT with SL 5969 (5968 is 5 ema in daily charts)
If prices are above 5969 , initiate LONG with SL 5960 (our decider line )
No matter even we open at 6000+ , if we again try to fall below 5960 , strive your ax

SS



Thursday, 7 February 2013

Why BEARS have an edge ?


NIFTY :

Yesterday was a typical gap filling day.
Neither bull took it nor bears.

A useless day ?
No Sir , look at the volumes picking up. And that is why I am getting bear .

SHORT is for me currently with SL 5987.
 I intend to short each rise . Cant ditch MACD.

Stop Losses should be brutally followed as its one of those risky trades where you bet on breaking of a very long term channel . This is amateur yet the way factors visible to me , shorting looks a better option.



The trade discussed above is high risk , skilled trader game.
Please don't attempt if you have handful of money .

Save it , add each penny and keep it for the bigger game. When the prices would break the channel go down    and make a re-entry to the channel , make sure you visit the blog beforehand .
I will make sure , I make it your best trade of 2013.



1: 36 pm :



1:47 pm :

Kangaroo tail again in 2 min .

Closing 50  percent of my shorts and rest SL @ Cost

2:27 pm

The rise is engulfed in inverted W shape pattern .
Abuse me tonight if we dont close near a NEW LOW.

SS



Wednesday, 6 February 2013

Trade Set up : 6th - 8th Feb


NIFTY :  Confusing.....
                Look at the daily chart , the channel in which we are , the lower end has so many touchpoints ( green arrow points). As a rule , this makes the lower end of the channel super strong , too tough to break.





But this contradicts with falling MACD. It is falling towards zero and once below it , falls can be rapid with already negative divergences posted by MACD since so many days .

The leading indicator (Channel) says : Reversal is near
The lagging indicator (MACD) says : Sorry Boss.

What should we do ?

I am taking 2 more factors before drawing a trade plan :

1) Volume

Volumes are the key near channel boundaries .
Low volumes tend to indicate , channel shall NOT  be broken and reversal is Near.
High volumes tend to indicate , channel MIGHT get broken with a bang.


2) Weekly Charts

Lets see how weekly charts are panning out.

Till yesterday , candlesticks have formed a bearish engulfing and MACD rushing towards a bearish crossover but , the week is now over yet and if prices start to move up firstly the bearish engulf will be disrupted and then MACD cross will be prevented ( Chances of cross stays low as angle to slow ema in MACD is straight to upwards )

Anyhow : Weekly Charts says : Coming Moves Can be fierce in either of directions.




Trade Plan :

With all my ability , I stick to play the way a trader should be.
Yesterday GAP gives me a wonder full opportunity to trade in the direction of fierce movement (SHORT as per the gap created).

So , I will go SHORT with 5970 as strict SL.

What if 5970 is screwed ?

I wont blink a second to reverse my positions to LONG SIDE.
Once prices starts moving up , Weekly charts will stay in its bullish shape plus daily channel would be protected shooting the prices sky high.

SHORT at current prices with SL 5970
Above 5970 , go LONG with SL yesterday low 5944.
Volumes should be watched during the day to ensure the trade direction.

*Please ignore that cci indicator in both of the charts. I had never used it neither i know what rocket science is that. It got just slected by mistake and i noticed it after the charts were drawn..

SS




Tuesday, 5 February 2013

5th Feb :


9:30 am :

Clap Clap Clap Clap !

9:45 am

SELL ICICI BANK
SELL DLF
SELL NIFTY
SELL LT
SELL SBI
SELL ANY DAMN SCRIPT !


11 :11 am

To my hyderabad visitor :

Action in weekly chart shall be analysed after Friday close ?

Lower time frame hints the prime action or bigger time frames ? By rule bigger the time frame , clearer the course direction....its debatable , any change in prime direction gets its entry gate through smaller time frames isn't it.......so same weekly chart action can be speculated from weekly to daily...or daily to weekly , depends on the objective trader mindset. Personal prowess on either approach works well.


11 : 35 AM

SHORT SBI

current spot : 2366
SL : Day high 2370
Negative divergence in 2 min chart..
Close Encounter

SHORT DLF

Current spot : 268
SL as per risk capacity.






SS

Monday, 4 February 2013

4th Feb :


11:30 AM : 

NIFTY : 

Classic way of writing Call Options.
I would like to SHORT cautiously.

Till we are below 6060 , each tick is adding out to commence a blood bath very soon.
If not today tomorrow , may be later in the week. But this week itself.

Nifty Daily MACD is already bearish whereas my bet's are more in favour of weekly charts.

Pertaining to high beta environment related to budget fuss , SL should be TIGHT.


SS

Saturday, 2 February 2013

Coming Monday : BLACK MONDAY.

NIFTY :

Hanging Man Validated in Weekly.
Daily Charts needs not to be posted , I cant see anything , not a single thing bullish in daily charts.

I don't know how things will bell ahead , but I am eyeing just Shorting Opportunities.
First target 5900 and if prices ticks below it , gives a close below it for couple of days , Bull Market is Over and out.

SS

Friday, 1 February 2013

1st FEB :

9:26 AM

SHORT IT .

Nifty.

12:04 pm

Beautiful HnS in 2 min chart , LT

SHORT IT.
Current Spot : 1544


12:42 PM

NIFTY : Bhooom
LT : Bhooom
DLF : Bhooom
ICICI : Bhoom
Axis : Bhoom



Slap thy neighbor who tells you Stock Markets are Gambling.
Welcome to TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.


SS